The most-asked question about SSDs in 2026, answered from the published evidence rather than hope. Every forecast here is dated and sourced; we revise this page when the industry’s outlook changes. Last reviewed 2026-10-16.
Not before the second half of 2027, on current evidence. TrendForce’s forecast for 4Q26 is still +15 to +20% for NAND Flash contract prices (TrendForce, 30 Sep 2026). Its 2027 outlook expects supply to loosen in 2H27 and prices to come under downward pressure then — not sooner. The increases are already slowing: 3Q26 came in at +10–15% after +70–75% in 2Q26, because consumers stopped absorbing higher prices, not because supply improved.
Sources: TrendForce, 30 Sep 2026: “AI Server Demand Sustains Memory Contract Price Increases in 4Q26, While Consumer-Side Pressure Persists”; TrendForce, 30 Jul 2026: “Diverging Memory Market Outlook in 2027 as DRAM Supply Remains Tight While NAND Flash Supply Conditions Ease”.
Cloud providers moved storage demand from hard drives to high-capacity QLC SSDs during 2025, then locked in multi-quarter supply agreements. Enterprise SSDs are the one category where price growth is still accelerating in 4Q26.
NAND makers cut output after the 2023 losses and have been slow to invest. Phison reported in November 2025 that every NAND maker had sold out its 2026 capacity; TrendForce does not expect new fabs to ramp in volume before late 2027.
From 3Q26 the increases slowed because PC and phone makers could not pass further costs on. That caps how fast consumer SSD prices rise — it does not bring them down while supply is short.
The balance of these forces is what the SSD Price Index charts quarter by quarter. For the mechanics behind each force, see why SSD prices are rising.
TrendForce names the upside risk itself: faster-than-expected adoption of agentic AI, which would add demand for high-speed SSDs and keep the market closer to balance through 2027. Add continued supplier discipline (no one wants a repeat of 2023) and long-term agreements that stretch today’s prices into next year, and the 2H27 date can slip.
Waiting has not paid off at any point since mid-2023, and nothing in the current forecasts suggests it will in the next few quarters. Practical rules:
This forecast is reviewed when TrendForce publishes its next quarterly outlook and whenever a major supplier changes guidance. The review date is shown at the top; the quarterly series with every source is on the index page. We do not publish retailer price histories and we do not guess numbers that have not been published.